This blog has moved.

Please visit our new page here

« Obama campaign rolls out education-focused Spanish-language ads in Florida | Main | RPOF's ACORN moment: GOP-paid registrars file 106 'questionable' voter-registration forms »

Connie Mack camp: Yeah, we're losing (but not by 9-14 points)

Memo from Connie Mack campaign manager Jeff Cohen, who raises some good and some dubious points about ALL of the major public polling that shows the Republican Congressman trailing Bill Nelson:

A variety of polls commissioned by the media have attempted to paint the Florida Senate race in a light that is simply not accurate.

As numerous respected outside pollsters and objective members of the media have noted, many public polls have been constructed using voter turnout projections that simply do not match, or even attempt to match, the realities and trends of this election cycle. Virtually no objective pollster or pundit expects 2012 turnout to even closely reflect 2008’s aberration.

For instance, highly-regarded pollster John McLaughlin was recently quoted in National Review saying media pollsters are being lobbied by Democrats to, ‘weight their surveys to emulate the 2008 Democrat-heavy models.’ McLaughlin added that, ‘the intended effect is to suppress Republican turnout through media polling bias.’

Nevertheless some media outlets and Democrat-affiliated pollsters have released polls based on highly questionable Party Identification models that can serve no other purpose than to attempt to sway public opinion and voter enthusiasm. For instance over the last two days alone:

This morning’s Quinnipiac Poll (Commissioned by CBS News / New York Times) survey showing Nelson beating Mack 53-39 was comprised of:

                  27% Republicans

                  36% Democrats

                  33% Independents

The Washington Post Poll (released 9/25/12) showing Nelson beating Mack 54-40 was comprised of:

                  32% Republicans

                  33% Democrats

                  31% Independents

The demographic makeup of these and other polls contrast sharply with the Mack campaign’s model of voter performance. Our latest internal poll, conducted 9/23 was comprised of:

                  39.5% Republican

                  43% Democrat

                  16.7% Independent

Our poll, which sampled 600 likely voters and had a margin of error of +/- 4%, had several key findings that stand in contrast to public polls:

Connie is moving up on Bill Nelson. Though he still trails by 5.4 points, 47.7% - 42.3% Connie has gained eight net points since our first general election survey that we conducted in mid-August.

Connie is receiving over 60% of the undecided voters when they indicate how they are leaning. Since 10% of the voters are firm undecided – if Connie can continue to get 60% of the undecideds (which usually happens for a challenger) it makes the race an absolute dead heat.

51% of those surveyed have seen one of our television ads featuring Connie. Among this group, Connie has vaulted into a commanding lead, and is ahead of Nelson 52-42. Clearly, the messages of our campaign are working and Bill Nelson’s negative attacks are failing.

A number of other things are also now becoming very clear about this race:

By a margin of 3:2 people believe that Bill Nelson is running a negative campaign. (I am left to wonder though why that number isn’t 9:1)

People see Connie as much stronger on supporting the military than Bill Nelson. They see him as a strong conservative. These facts work to Connie’s advantage both because they are true, and because of the millions of veterans who live in Florida and vote.

Voters don’t like Bill Nelson because he is too liberal, because of his specific votes on ObamaCare, and because he is a career politician who has been in office too long.

I am confident that Connie will end up well over 50%. But sustaining our momentum and expanding the reach of our message requires resources. We urge our supporters to continue to do all they can in this race, from sending contributions to amplifying our messages through other means.

The state of this race is clear — if Mitt Romney wins Connie wins. If Connie wins Mitt Romney wins. And when Connie and Mitt Romney both win, the people of Florida and America will be the true winners."