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Mellman/Dem poll: Obama 49, Romney 47 in Florida

Polls are all over the map. RealClearPolics average puts it at Romney + 1.3 pecent n F. average has Fla 48-48. The latest from Democrats' Mellman group:

This analysis represents the findings of a statewide survey of the likely November 2012 Florida electorate using a registration-based sample including cellphones and landlines. Eight hundred (800 interviews were conducted in English and Spanish October 24-27. The margin of error for the whole sample is +/-3.4% at a 95% level of confidence and higher for subgroups depending upon size.

Our latest poll shows President Obama gaining momentum in Florida and now leading Mitt Romney 49% to 47%, with the pool of undecided voters shrinking to just 4%. Among the 29% who have already cast their ballot, the President received the support of over half—topping Romney 51% to 47%. Last week the President was tied with his challenger.

President Obama continues to lead Romney among women (52%-44%), African-Americans (94%-1%), Hispanics (56%-39%) and 18-to-39 year-olds (62%-39%). More importantly, he maintains his edge among swing voters, who often decide closer to Election Day, with stable leads among registered independents (51%-43%) and self-described moderates (61% to 33%). In addition, Obama maintains a stronger image among independents, who give the president a 54% to 45% favorable/unfavorable rating, but split evenly 48% to 48% on Romney.


Posted by Adam C. Smith