Another day another poll in the governor's race, this one from Saint Leo University. It shows Gov. Rick Scott leading Democrat Charlie Crist by an inside-the-error-margin amount of 43-41 percent.
Those results aren't surprising. Scott has spent at lest $12 million in unanswered TV ads statewide and Crist has spent zero since mid-March, which coincides with Saint Leo's last poll that showed Crist was up 43-39 percent.
Bottom line: $12 million unanswered TV ads has moved the needle a net 6 points in Scott's favor. So that's $2 million per point.
As with other polls, Saint Leo's indicates Scott is struggling to get near 50 percent. Nearly every major survey shows the governor stuck between 42-45 percent. But that doesn't matter (especially in a multi-candidate race that will feature a Libertarian candidate; likely Adrian Wyllie).
Elections are about who gets the most votes. Not who gets a pre-determined percentage.
**UPDATE NOTE: It looks like all of Saint Leo's polling is done online now, which makes me a little nervous about the results (although they jibe with others). Here's more about the methodology.
Here's the last time we mentioned Saint Leo and here's its write up now:
SAINT LEO, FL Governor Rick Scott and former Governor Charlie Crist are locked in a statistical tie, according to a new poll by the Saint Leo Polling Institute. Scott leads Crist, 43-41 percent, among likely voters according to the poll, which is within the poll¹s margin of error. The remaining 16 percent of voters are undecided. The race should be considered a statistical tie.
Scott¹s situation has gradually improved over the past six months. A January Saint Leo University poll had Crist ahead, 46-34 percent. In March, Crist¹s lead was 43-39 percent a statistical tie.
"For the first time since the poll's inception, Rick Scott has edged out Charlie Crist," said Frank Orlando, instructor of political science at Saint Leo University. "Scott and Crist are locked in a war of attrition; voters aren¹t in love with either one of them," stated Orlando.
Scott's job approval rating among all voters is split at 46 percent approval, 46 percent disapproval. Scott and Crist have matching favorability ratings. Scott's is 46 percent favorable, 48 percent unfavorable Crist's is 47/47. "Scott has been working hard and spending money on advertising. It¹s difficult to pinpoint whether his gradual improvement during the last six months (6 percent increase in favorability) is due to his substantial ad campaign, moderating his image, or if the Republican base has finally firmed up behind Scott," continued Orlando.
Scott tops former state Senator Nan Rich, 44-31 percent, should she become the Democratic nominee.
Florida's two U.S. senators are in solid position with voters, though both have re-elect ratings under 50 percent. Senator Bill Nelson's re-election rating is 43 percent, his approval rating is 48/35 (+13), and his favorability rating is 49/36 (+13). Senator Marco Rubio¹s re-election rating is 46 percent, his approval rating is 50/39, and his favorability rating is 51/41 (+10).
The Saint Leo University Polling Institute survey results about national politics and policy can be found here: http://polls.saintleo.edu. You can also follow the institute on [email protected]