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South Florida's early voting Monday is a warning sign for Rick Scott

@MarcACaputo

Yesterday, something weird happened: early voting was lower Sunday than on Saturday in South Florida's three biggest counties. Miami-Dade saw 6,109 (lower than Tuesday and Wednesday) early voters; Broward was 5,912 (the lowest of the week); Palm Beach 3,377 (the lowest of the week).

So panic settled in among some Democrats because low turnout in Democrat-rich South Florida means Gov. Rick Scott will more than likely be reelected. It was a warning sign for Democrat Charlie Crist.

Today, some opposite weirdness: Gangbusters early vote numbers on Monday (a work day).

Miami-Dade saw 8,153 new early voters (a 33 percent increase); Broward was 8,518 (44 percent); and Palm Beach 7,019 (108 percent). Maybe this a lag in data entry from understaffed county elections supervisors?

Either way, in the interest of balance and accuracy, let's call this a warning sign for Scott. 

We won't know the party breakdown until tomorrow (and, no, the votes for the candidates aren't opened and tabulated until Election Day). But at current rates, there's a good chance Democrats increased their net lead in these three counties by 6,741.

That's just for these three counties. There are 67 counties total.

And it should be noted (as has been done everyday here): Republicans still hold a sizable lead in pre-Election Day ballots. This morning it was 138,572. That's thanks to the GOP's strong voters and the party's absentee-ballot program.

But the GOP lead has been shrinking and, considering today's numbers in the Big Three urban counties, there's a good chance that trend will continue. But there's also a good likelihood that raw early voting numbers will be not continue to climb before the weekend, after which early voting ends before Election Day. Let's call Monday's numbers, and perhaps Sunday's, a blip. 

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