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SurveyUSA/WFLA poll: Crist keeps climbing, leads Scott 46-40%

@MarcACaputo

Democrat Charlie Crist is nursing a slight 46-40 percent lead over Gov. Rick Scott in SurveyUSA's latest poll for WFLA-TV.

Crist's 6 percentage-point lead isn't so big because the likely-voter poll's error margin is 4.1 percent.

But it ain't the topline, it's the trend to note. And for the past two weeks, the momentum has been for Crist: a net 9 percentage point shift since last week and, compared to the poll released Sept. 9, an 11-point shift.

The movement in Crist's direction corresponds with Crist's increasing ad buys. Scott has been pumping more money into TV as well, but he hadn't been as closely answered as he is now.

Overall, the poll track in the governor's race indicates one clear takeaway: the race is close and prone to minor shifts.

A caveat about SurveyUSA's track: It has had some inexplicable shifts and the independent respondents in the poll have shifted the most. Two weeks ago, Scott led among independents by 13. Now Crist leads them by 8 -- a 21-point shift.

Also, compared to other polls, SurveyUSA is finding far lower support for Florida's medical-marijuana initiative: 52-33 percent. It takes 60 percent of the vote to approve a constitutional amendment in Florida. The average of other major polls puts support at 64 percent.

A bonus for all you poll unskewers: Don't bother. This poll reflects a Republican-Democrat-Independent respondent sample of 40-40-19 percent (numbers are rounded). Blending the 2006 and 2010 turnout rates by party ID, it would likely be a better if the poll had a 38-36-26 percent breakdown. But after rejiggering the poll based on that GOP+2 model, Crist still leads, by about 5 percentage points instead of 6.

Here's more from SurveyUSA and here's what the track looks like as of now

SurveyUSA 0930 gov race

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