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Miami-Dade, 2016 bellwether for flipping Florida House seats


Democratic consultant Steve Schale of Tallahassee posted an analysis to his blog Monday ranking the 10 Florida House of Representatives races most likely to flip parties in this year's elections.

He includes two based in Miami-Dade County -- the Hialeah seat Republican Rep. Manny Diaz Jr. is trying to keep, and the open, Central Dade seat now held by Republican Rep. Erik Fresen -- but warns that more GOP districts could flip if there's a Hillary Clinton landslide over Donald Trump:

 I have felt for several years that one day, on the Wednesday after the election, we will wake up and the Democrats will have won several seats in Dade County that no one saw coming.  This might be the year.  These incumbents all live in seats Obama either one or lost in narrow margins:  Trujillo, Oliva, Bileca, Artiles (Open), and Nunez.  In the other two, Avila and Pepe Diaz, the voter registration and Presidential top of the ticket trend lines are working against the Republicans, though they are in far safer seats for Republicans than the other five.  Right now, none of the above have Democratic candidates that merit inclusion on this list, though I have heard the Democrat getting into the Artiles open could be formidable.  But that doesn't mean you shouldn't pay attention.  In 2012, Jeff Soloman put a much closer than expected five point scare into Bileca -- and if the D's had thrown a candidate into almost any of the other seats, Obama might have pulled another Mark Danish or Carl Zimmermann across the line.  If Trump loses Dade by 30 points or more -- which is extremely possible at this point -- I would bet lunch that at the wave carries one of the above to the Dem column.