Trump to air first TV ads in Florida

@PatriciaMazzei

Donald Trump will air his first TV ads of the general election in Florida next week, his campaign said Tuesday.

Confirming a report by The Wall Street Journal, Trump spokeswoman Hope Hicks told the Miami Herald the TV spots will also appear in North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania. All four are key swing states.

Recent Florida polls have shown the Republican Trump slipping in Florida behind Democrat Hillary Clinton, though the race in the state is likely to remain close.

Murphy says - without hesitation - that Clinton is trustworthy

@alextdaugherty

U.S. Senate hopeful Patrick Murphy did not waffle when asked if he thinks Hillary Clinton is trustworthy.

"Yes," he told a Miami Herald reporter without hesitation at a South Miami campaign stop Tuesday evening.

That was far different from New Hampshire Democratic Senate candidate and Gov. Maggie Hassan, who dodged the same question earlier Tuesday when asked three separate times if she thought Clinton was trustworthy. Her campaign later clarified that Hassan does see Clinton as honest.

Clinton, who is up in most head-to-head Florida polls against Donald Trump, is struggling to shed her reputation as untrustworthy among voters. Just 11 percent of voters in a recent national NBC poll describe Clinton as honest and trustworthy. Another national Economist/YouGov poll stated that fewer than a third of likely voters consider Clinton trustworthy.

 

Murphy, Rubio add to endorsements

@JeremySWallace

With just two weeks until Florida's primary election, candidates for the U.S. Senate have picked up a couple of key endorsement they hope will give them a boost going into the stretch run.

In the Democratic primary, the League of Conservation Voters endorsed Patrick Murphy, the Palm Beach County Congressman, running against Orlando Congressman Alan Grayson and Pam Keith, a Miami resident and former U.S. Navy officer.

"Growing up in South Florida on the front lines of the climate crisis, Congressman Patrick Murphy understands firsthand how important it is to protect our environment," said Tiernan Sittenfeld of the League of Conservation Voters Action Fund.

In the Republican primary, the South Florida Council of Firefighters threw its support behind incumbent Marco Rubio, a Miami Republican who is running for a second 6-year-term against Manatee County homebuilder Carlos Beruff. That group says it represents 3,500 firefighters in South Florida.

“We commend Marco on his willingness to run for, and serve, in public office and because of that, the South Florida Council of Fire Fighters (SFCFF) has endorsed his re-election campaign," said David Perez, president of South Florida Council of Firefighters.

Explosive controversy: CFO Atwater in accreditation fight

Where there's smoke, there's fire, at least in the case of a state-run lab that tests fire debris for law enforcement agencies.

The state Bureau of Forensic Fire and Explosives Analysis, part of Chief Financial Officer Jeff Atwater's operation, is waging an all-out effort with a 30-year national accreditation agency that has stripped it of its fire debris accreditation, saying among other things that it has "concern regarding the competency of laboratory personnel."

The Times/Herald's full report is here.

The Spanish-language TV debate ended. Then Joe Garcia lashed out at the moderator

@PatriciaMazzei

Former U.S. Rep. Joe Garcia was fuming when the cameras stopped rolling Monday night at the end of his first televised debate against Miami Democratic primary opponent Annette Taddeo.

Angered over what he perceived as bias against him, Garcia stepped into a hallway just outside the recording studio of Spanish-language station América TeVé and lashed out — loudly — at moderator Felix Guillermo and, later, at station manager Miguel Cossio, according to several people who overheard the heated argument.

Two people said they heard Garcia say “comemierda,” a common local insult usually taken to mean “fool” or “jackass,” though it literally translates to “shit-eater.” On Tuesday afternoon, Cossio and Guillermo vehemently denied to the Miami Herald that Garcia used the word against either of them.

“I wouldn’t have allowed that,” Cossio said. “He never insulted me,” Guillermo said.

The exchange lasted a few minutes, according to the people who heard it, with Garcia unleashing his frustration after a debate he apparently felt did not go well. América TeVé employees appeared surprised and embarrassed by the dust-up — especially because Taddeo still hadn’t left the station.

Guillermo dismissed the incident as an “internal” matter. “Nothing happened,” he told the Herald on Tuesday morning.

More here.

Photo credit: Emily Michot, Miami Herald staff

Monmouth poll: Clinton, Rubio ahead in Florida

@PatriciaMazzei

Hillary Clinton holds a 9-percentage-point lead over Donald Trump in Florida, according to a new poll by Monmouth University, which also found Marco Rubio ahead of his two chief rivals for U.S. Senate.

Clinton drew 48 percent support in the poll, compared to Trump's 39 percent. Six percent went to Libertarian Gary Johnson, and 1 percent to Green Party candidate Jill Stein.

Clinton's advantage comes from her backing from Hispanic, black and Asian voters, who favor her over Trump by 65-19 percent. She also bests Trump among white women, by 49-39 percent, though he leads among white voters overall, including both college and non-college graduates. She's got stronger support among Democrats (92 percent) than Trump does among Republicans (79 percent). Independent voters are also leaning toward Clinton, by 47-30 percent. 

Most voters still view Clinton and Trump very unfavorably.

"The gender split among white voters in Florida is huge," Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said in a statement. "Men are drawn to Trump's message while women are not. These offsetting factors give Clinton the edge."

In the Senate race, incumbent Rubio leads U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy of Jupiter by 48-43 percent and U.S. Rep. Alan Grayson of Orlando by 50-39 percent. Murphy and Grayson are running in the Aug. 30 Democratic primary.

Among poll respondents, 53 percent said they thought Rubio chose to run for re-election to improve his chances to seek the presidency again. Sixty-three percent were unaware Rubio had backed Trump; most respondents didn't care but about 25 percent said the endorsement would make them less likely to vote for Rubio for Senate.

"Rubio's endorsement of Trump could come back to bite him if more voters actually learn about it," Murray said. "It remains to be seen whether the eventual Democratic nominee can turn this to his advantage in the general election campaign."

The telephone poll of 402 likely voters was conducted from Aug. 12-15. It has an error margin if 4.9 percentage points.

Elections commission fines Dwight Bullard $2,000 for failing to amend his treasurer's reports

The Florida Elections Commission has fined Sen. Dwight Bullard, D-Cutler Bay, for the second time this year for failing to properly amend his campaign treasurer's reports with the Florida Division of Elections. 

The commission fined Bullard $2,000 for two counts of filing incomplete reports in 2013 and 2014 after the Division of Elections sent him at least six letters asking him to update his reports. Bullard's reports claimed he raised no money for his re-election campaign and he filed the form without a signature. The commission concluded that his actions were a "willful violation" and unanimously agreed to assess the fines.

In May, the commission also fined Bullard $5,000 for five violations from 2013 to 2015 for also filing incomplete elections paperwork.

Bullard, a high school teacher is seeking a second Senate term. He serves as his own campaign treasurer. He said Tuesday that the fines "will be paid" and he takes responsibility for his repeated violations. 

"It has happened to me in the past. It's unfortunate. It's painful,'' he said. "They definitely sent notices out but, between session, the school year and campaigning, my priorities are focused on other things and I missed the deadlines." 

 

 

 

Rick Scott biggest donors? It's all business

@JeremySWallace

It’s unmistakable who Gov. Rick Scott’s biggest fans are if you look at his political fundraising over the last two years.

The latest campaign finance records show Scott’s Let’s Get to Work Committee this month has received another $100,000 combined from a pair of political action committees affiliated with Associated Industries of Florida, one of the most influential business groups in the state. Now three groups with ties to AIF have combined to give Scott’s committee $740,000 since the start of 2015.

But they are still not his top donor. The Florida Chamber of Commerce and a political committee tied to it, hold that spot. They have combined to donate more than $925,000 to Let’s Get to Work.

It’s a big drop off after that. Walt Disney World Parks and Resorts gave Scott more than $252,000 last year. And U.S. Sugar Corporation, and Tampa Bay Lightning owner Jeffrey Vinik are next in line, both donating $200,000 to Scott’s committee.

Scott continues to raise money in Let’s Get to Work, despite facing term limits and being unable to run for another term as governor because of term limits. Scott has used the fund over the last two years to run television ads and fuel bus tours around the state to promote his agenda. He has raised $6.8 million for the fund since the start of 2015.

Florida GOP making gains in registrations in smaller counties

@JeremySWallace

There is no doubting that the presidential primary played a big part in a surge of Republican voters that have been added to the voter roles this year, but there is more to the increase than just that, insists Republican Party of Florida chairman Blaise Ingoglia.

Since January, Florida's active voter registrations have increased by 377,000, with nearly 60 percent of those in favor of Republicans. Republicans added 154,000 voters just in those first three months. But even since then, Republicans have continued to add, picking up another 68,000 voters since May. 

Ingoglia said the RPOF has put a big emphasis on training staff and volunteers to identify people in rural and mid-sized counties who are independents or with other parties and getting them to switch over. He said in more rural counties where voters have been picking Republicans in presidential elections, voters continue to be Democrats because of tradition. 

Ingoglia said the more those counties switch voters over, the more viable it becomes for candidates to run as Republicans for local offices, like sheriff. In a lot of the rural counties, people are still registered as Democrats to vote in local primaries but vote Republican in presidential cycles.

“The goal was to get as close to parity with Democrats as possible in those counties,” Ingoglia said.

Just since the 2014 November elections, 10 counties that had been a majority of Democrats now have a majority of Republicans, Florida Division of Elections records show. Florida now has a Republican majority in 39 out of 67 counties.

Two of the latest counties to switch majorities to the GOP include Okeechobee County and Suwannee County. The signify exactly what Ingoglia is talking about. Okeechobee, which has 19,000 voters, has had a Democratic majority in registrations for decades, yet a Democrat has not carried the county in a presidential election since Bill Clinton’s 1996 re-election over Bob Dole. In Suwannee, which has 26,000 registered voters, a Democrat had not carried the state in a presidential campaign since Jimmy Carter in 1980 in his loss to Ronald Reagan.

The largest party to switch over the last year, as the Times reporters earlier this year, was Pinellas County. Republicans now have a 635-voter advantage over Democrats in Pinellas, which has more than 625,000 voters.

Republicans pick up registered voters in year of Trump

@JeremySWallace

Republicans have seen a surge in registered voters in Florida since the start of the year, cutting the Democrats overall advantage to the thinnest in state history and giving Donald Trump's presidential campaign more reason to be hopeful.

Since January, the number of registered voters in Florida has jumped by 377,000 with nearly 60 percent of that within the Republican ranks — a sign that Trump is drawing voters to the party, his campaign argues. Democrats now have a 259,000 vote edge over Republicans — only half of what it was four years ago.

"It is a difference maker," Karen Giorno, Trump's chief strategist in Florida, said of the gain and the packed rallies that demonstrate enthusiasm for Trump.

There's no doubt that the March 15 primary, which Trump won with 46 percent of the vote, drew a flurry of new members to the Republican Party. It added 154,000 between January and March. Democrats gained only 88,000 during the same period, according to Florida's Division of Elections.

But those gains might be an exaggeration of overall Republican support in a general election, said University of Florida political science professor Daniel A. Smith.

In January and February, many who were registered with minor parties, like the Reform Party, or claimed "no party affiliation" shifted to Republican so they could vote in the GOP presidential primary. Smith said those voters were already likely Republican voters, so it doesn't indicate a significant swing come November.

Since the primary, Republicans have added 68,000 — which is on par with what Democrats have been picking up.

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