The Florida Chamber of Commerce on Monday defended its pre-primary number-crunching that shows a remarkably high number of so-called unlikely or low-propensity voters have already cast ballots in Tuesday's statewide primary. The figure is 36 percent, to be exact, of all voters registered to vote in Florida prior to July 2008 who have not voted in more than one primary since then.
"For those working to influence elections, 36 percent is a significant size," wrote the Chamber's Marian Johnson in a memo.
Drilling deeper, Johnson said, the emergence of low-propensity voters, as they are known, is more common among Democrats and voters with no party affiliation than among Republicans. Elections officials in Tampa Bay's two largest counties, Pinellas and Hillsborough, said they are not seeing this trend in their data.