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Internal poll shows Pizzo up on Daphne Campbell in Senate District 38


Daphne Campbell, call your office.

Two years after winning her northeast Dade state Senate seat in a six-way scrum with just 31 percent of the vote, Campbell was down double digits to her challenger in Florida's 38th district as absentee ballots went out in the mail late last month. That's according to an internal polling memo released to the Miami Herald by Jason Pizzo's campaign.

Pizzo was the runner-up to Campbell in 2016 in the Democratic primary, which effectively decided the race in a solid-blue district. But in a head-to-head rematch two years later, Pizzo's polling found that he was running with 36 percent support to Campbell's 19 heading into August.

"With the campaign working hard to raise the necessary funds to communicate an aggressive message across the district’s 15 municipalities, we are confident that these numbers will hold as we define Pizzo’s successful tenure as a community prosecutor and Campbell’s lock-step votes against the community," states a Pizzo campaign memo.

Outside of the normal qualifiers we offer about internal polls, there's a big caveat for Pizzo, and it's not the 4 percent margin of error for the survey of 350 voters: Nearly half of voters queried remained undecided.

But it's a far different race from two years ago now that Pizzo and Campbell are truly head-to-head. Plus, the primary between the two Democrats is an open contest, meaning anyone can vote, regardless of party affiliation -- and Pizzo's campaign found that independent and Republican voters are voting.

Through one week of absentee voting, Republicans and independent voters have made up 40 percent of the vote, according to Pizzo's campaign.

How that affects the race should be interesting. Campbell is a socially conservative Democrat, something Pizzo's campaign has highlighted in this bruising contest. But Pizzo has far more resources than Campbell, and is better able to campaign across a wider spectrum of voters.

The primary is Aug. 28.

Video courtesy of WPLG's This Week in South Florida.